WHICH YEAR WILL IT BE?

In a hours it will be 2024. Not, I think, a number of any particular significance or resonance, but events in the following 366 days might alter that for some reason . Humans attach great significance to their numbers, to the arbitrary patterns imposed on our consciousness by the 'meaning' of dates. The world, our world, will be no different on Monday that on Sunday, but we still want it to be, hope it will be, seek change within ourselves.

And some years automatically conjure up particular images.  1066 is an obvious one. To be counterbalanced by 1314. From last century 1914 and 1939 are probably the most (in)famous - but that's wars again. So how about 1969, the first moon landing? And then in this century, 2016 will be remembered as the year when the UK and the UK indulged in differing forms of political hara-kiri (sp?) that brought their one disasters. While I think we can all recall what 2020 was about...

But year numbers also have significance for other reasons. Not for what happened, but for something someone wrote about  -1984 is the most renowned one. Slightly less well known, but still worth mentioning, 2001. George Orwell. Arthur C Clarke. Both creating visions of the near future, both now seeming well in our past. Orwell published his 35 years before his title, Clarke 33 (although the latter timing is based on the release of the film version, which came before the novel, but not that the script was derived from a 1951 Clarke short story), so they are very similar in that respect. There are also some similarities in themes, but 2001 is the more optimistic, 1984 the more dystopian.

Nothing ages as badly as predictions for the future. 2001 shows space technology progressing at a far faster rate than in reality, with the orbiting space station an impressive creation (with some artificial gravity present for crew) that makes the current set up look a bit Heath Robinson. But it also predicts that AI can be a real threat to humans, something that gets mentioned a lot now.

1984 shows a world of semi-permanent war, and close political control of the media and the populace. State propaganda is the only form of communication that ordinary citizens receive. Hope comes from humanity and love, but that is shown to be fragile.

Which feels like the more accurate prediction?

Orwell definitely feels the more prescient.  While not every state is at war, most seem to have some connections to at least one, supporting the one side or the other, often materially.  The fault lines separating the US, Russia and China remain as treacherous as ever.  CCTV has become ubiquitous, part of the backgound furniture.  But the greatest similarity to Winston Smith's world feels like the way we are manipluated by the media, and the government.  Told who to hate this week.  Told that there are movements within society that are working against us, and more made-up the better it seems.  "Wokeism", "Cultural Marxism", "The Trans Agenda", and other fictional scare stories are so commonplace now they aren't even laughed at for what they are.  The extrme right dystopia is on our doorstep, and I don't see Starmer Labour administration doing much to chance that....