EU Referendum? Oh, alright then.

WIN OR WIN?

Until recently I considered the idea of having an In or Out of the EU referendum to be a vast waste of public money and totally unnecessary.  The only people who really consider this to be a major political issue are usually suffering from Daily Fail-itis, a condition that induces irrational fear of benign situations.

But that ailment is now gripping several of the leaders of the main UK political parties, so that instead of showing some sense of direction they have ended up following a misbegotten bandwagon.  If Milliband had said, after his conference speech, that he'd left out the deficit and immigration because they aren't the major issues we face in the real world, and are largely constructs of a self-interested mass media, he might have won my admiration.  That would have been proper leadership.

Similarly for the EU.  It's a far from perfect institution, particularly in the ways it reinforces the neoliberal economic agenda.  But overall it remains a positive force for good and the benefits greatly outweigh the disadvantages.  And criticisms that it is undemocratic sit uneasily coming from a state in which we have legislators whose sole qualification is being on particularly close speaking terms with their imaginary friend, and a had of state that symbolises our greatest problems.

But the referendum is starting to look desirable, at least if you live in Scotland.  The most likely result is a comprehensive majority for staying in, according to pretty much every reputable poll.  Which would have two major benefits.  It would likely put the issue to bed for a long time to come (unlike the recent referendum in Scotland....).  And, better still, would kill off ukip and send frog-faced Farage into well earned obscurity as a minor footnote in history.  The cost would be worth it just for that outcome for, without the far right tugging the strings, mainstream politics could drift back towards the centre-left ground where it truly belongs.

Of course these things are never entirely predictable and freak events can render any predictions redundant.  And in the event that an Out vote were to triumph there's still a big plus lurking in there.  Because that would almost certainly trigger a Yes vote in Scotland and the break up of the UK.  Tough on the English initially, but the possibility of a successful social democratic Scotland might be just the impetus the English left need to reinvigorate themselves.

Seems like a win-win to me.