DID IT MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE?
From The Skeptic's Dictionary :
"Confirmation bias refers to a type of selective thinking whereby one tends to notice and to look for what confirms one's beliefs, and to ignore, not look for, or undervalue the relevance of what contradicts one's beliefs."
Viewers will have watched the ITV leaders through their own variant of the above. We all do it, hearing what we want to hear and ignoring the facts that don't fit our picture of the world. Which goes to explain the confusing poll findings in the aftermath of the event. One said Cameron won, another Milliband, yet another said Sturgeon. All the parties spokespersons are claiming some kind of triumph for their representative, and rubbishing the others. There isn't much in the way of dispassionate analysis, with even once respected elements of the press demonstrating their prejudices - take a bow Daily Telegraph.
With the hype out of the way there appears to be a general consensus that Nicola Sturgeon gave the strongest performance, but that there were few stand out moments and the event probably didn't change many views. Yesterday I had a go at predicting who might shine, or fail, so how right or wrong did I get it?
I had thought Leanne Wood might be the one to shine. She certainly put up an impressive performance, and was excellent when putting Farage in his place, but her concentration on Welsh-only issues will have sent many viewers to sleep. Her focus has to be on maximising the number of seats Plaid can win at home, and recognising that she is unlikely to have any major role in forming the next UK government. She did exactly what she needed to and will have won support from the left in England. And my Twitter timeline is unanimous in judging Wood a clear winner of the 'loveliest voice to listen to' contest.
Natalie Bennett was more impressive than I'd feared, but remains a weak TV performer. She had mastery of her facts and figures, yet lacks that element in her personality which would fully convey the passion and belief she has for her parties vision. It was good to see someone with a totally different, and much more imaginative, agenda to all the others being given this platform. The Greens time will come, but it is not here yet. The conservative nature of most makes radical change a slow progress.
I had lumped Farage in with the other three, but he certainly managed to stand out as different to all of the other six. There were four areas in which he diverged radically from the pattern. Firstly, he was the only one to come up with an idea so vile and lacking in humanity that the audience clapped to hear him put down. Refusing to treat immigrants with HIV is the kind of hateful nonsense we've come to expect from ukip and will have helped convince many that they are not a party any decent human being could support. Fair play to Leanne Wood for being the one to tell him he should have been ashamed of himself for such an utterance.
Secondly, he was the only one who managed to blame one thing for every problem, no matter how unrelated. If I could stand to watch/listen to the man again I might try to count how many times he used the word 'immigration'. But I see no reason to put myself through such pain. His was clearly the most simple minded approach of them all, a dog whistle to the unthinking faithful.
Thirdly, he was the only one to throw his toys out of the pram, and frequently tried to shout over one of the others when they were speaking. Mind you, he does have form when it comes to childishness! Oh, and finally, the other six leaders were definitely sober.
And why was he allowed to get away, unchallenged, with the two most obviously blatant lies of the night? "Most of our laws are made blah blah blah." And Two billion pounds of 'health tourism'? Both have been disproved over and over, yet he continues to repeat this nonsense.
Who has been training Milliband in media presentation skills? Swiss Tony? That 'look straight into the camera' stuff was just plain creepy at times and gave Ed the smarmy car salesman look. Which was a pity because he didn't perform badly at all, just very predictably. He was in a tricky position, outflanked to the left by the three progressive parties, pandering to the right but seeking to distinguish himself from the others. I felt he managed to pull it off most of the time, and was at his best reminding Clegg that he will be judged on his record in government.
Poor Nick. Once the star of the show, he now has the look of the also ran. He remains a strong performer on the small screen though. His voice and demeanour are engaging, relaxed, personable. I still can't remember much of what he said though. His chance has gone, with all those broken promises, and there's little he can do to regain any credibility.
Cameron looked more relaxed than I'd expected him to, but was uncomfortable when receiving the sharp edge of Sturgeon's tongue. As with Ed he said nothing that couldn't have been predicted, avoided controversy, only pitched into the fight where he felt it safe to do so. There was the usual tedious Tory harping on about what a mess they'd been left by Labour (without a word about his mates, the bankers) which always shows him up to be a whining bully. But overall Shiny Dave did what he needed to.
Which leaves Nicola. Readers will think this is where my confirmation bias shows up again. In my heart I would like to have seen Natalie B emerge as the star of the night. My instinct told me it would be Leanne . But Ms Sturgeon was definitely in top spot, if not by as clear a margin as Clegg managed in 2010. Unlike Wood her message was largely aimed at English voters. Whilst acknowledging that the interests of Scotland would remain her top priority, she clearly set out how SNP influence on a Labour government could be of benefit to the whole UK. This will have done a lot to counteract the Tory/English media fear campaign directed against her party. Twitter seems to be indicating that a lot of folk in England would vote for Sturgeon if given the chance.
So I'd say that Nicola did herself the most good (and doing so may just have helped Ed), Farage the most self-harm, with the others pretty much as you were.
Helped Ed? When the Tories are building up an SNP success as a bonus for themselves? I wonder if, reassured that SNP support might lead to a more socially just Labour administration, some Old Labour voters who had turned Green might now reconsider and give their old party another chance? It will be interesting to see if there is any evidence for that theory in the next week or so.
One thing I definitely did get right. The three women were a tidal wave of freshness falling on the stale beach of the old boys club the other four represent. They were more respectful, clearer thinking, more honest, offered genuine alternatives to austerity and were a clear match for the rest. It was also good to see this alliance of progressive thinking supporting one another in the debate. There is a way forward. One day....
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