Party to an Independent Scotland?

PARTY RENEWAL

I was sorry to see the result of the Independence Referendum last September.  For reasons which will be obvious to anyone who has previously read my thoughts on the subject.  But also from more of a political anorak perspective.  Because something we didn't get to see was how the political parties in Scotland would have had to change to match the new landscape they inhabited.

Of the five main parties only the Greens might have had little shape shifting to do.  They are already, for ideological, and probably financial, reasons, a highly devolved organisation.  The Scottish Greens are already a distinct entity from the party in England.  They supported a Yes vote, and are very clear about the place they occupy on the political spectrum. Why would they see any reason to change?

Whereas the three old, established parties would be facing significant upheaval.  Joanne Lamont famously said that Labour HQ in London treated the Scottish party as nothing more than a 'branch office'.  The Tories and Lib Dems are similarly encumbered with a structure that sees them taking most of their policy and tone from down south.  So if Independence had been the outcome what would they have been facing in their futures?

Labour were once the dominant party in Scotland and still appeared to have a loyal following, despite many of their old supporters voting Yes in their heartland of Glasgow. This would surely have convinced the local leadership, now freed from the constraints place on them by the neoliberalism of New Labour to embrace the new country and take a leading role in building up the institutions required. They might even have looked to a new leader who was untainted by their recent past in Westminster.

A No vote was the result though, and Scottish Labour appear to be paying a heavy price for working so closely with the Tories in Better Together. Just how much damage has been done to them will be fully apparent in two weeks time.  Their current leader is very much out of the Blairite mould and struggling to achieve any popularity.

But if there had been a Yes?  Labour would have had the opportunity to seize back the left wing ground on which the SNP, and to a lesser degree the Greens, are soundly beating them.  They might have made the kind of transformation which would return them to looking like the natural party of government they have been in the past.

For the Tories the repositioning exercise would have been more difficult still.  Should they have accepted the result as permanent, ditched their southern links, and looked to establish themselves as the party of the right in the new country?  Or clung to the past and sought to become the rallying point for disgruntled unionists?  Perhaps even returning to their old name of the Conservative and Unionist Party?  A dangerous tactic when the U word has such strong associations with the problems of Northern Ireland - the last thing an independent Scotland would need is anything which sparks off sectarianism.

As for the Lib Dems..... No, sorry, I just can't bring myself to care.  In time I suppose they might have staged a recovery to represent the old liberal tradition, but it's hard not to see them as an irrelevance in the current climate.

Finally, the SNP.  Triumphant on the back of the Indyref result, they would surely be confident of playing a major political role in the future.  Except - what would they now stand for?  A party which was built around a single purpose, to bring about independence from the UK, would have to question it's very reason for existing and ponder what exactly it was now going to represent. They would have had the hardest job of the lot in adapting.

That was then of course.  Since September the SNP has quadrupled in membership and emerged as a major player in UK politics.  It has every chance of becoming the third largest party in Westminster and becoming a significant voice in the running of the state.  When independence does come (and I am convinced that it's definitely a case of 'when' and not 'if') does this strengthening of the party make it's transition any easier?

It certainly wouldn't vanish overnight.  With such a strong membership base, an established national infrastructure, and the most charismatic and competent politician in the country, it is bound to remain a significant force.  How could it be otherwise?  But it will still have the problem of working out what kind of party it now becomes, and what values it represents.  Especially if the revitalised Labour is able to reclaim it's left wing credentials.

Around the time of the referendum a lot of people in Scotland voiced fears that an SNP government in the new country would be a frightening prospect.  I thought then, and continue to think, that that was one of the least likely outcomes.  By the time full independence arrived (which was always going to take much longer than the over optimistic eighteen months suggesteded) the political landscape of the country would have moved on, the parties would be jostling to find their own standpoints, and the voters would have a wider range of choices than they do now - and would choose differently.

When independence does come, whenever that is, the months and years after the result are going to be fascinating for anyone with any interest in the mechanics of politics and government.