You have until tomorrow to sober up

FROM A CONCERNED NEIGHBOUR

Dear England,

We're getting quite worried about you. You're clearly not well, but maybe if you have a quiet lie down in a dark room you'll start to feel better. Just do it by Thursday please....

When I first started thinking about writing this post my intention was to highlight what a gift to comedy this whole EU Referendum nonsense was proving to be. But it's getting harder to find it all so funny now. Recent polls have shown Leave ahead, and the real possibility that they might actually win. Despite every sane independent commentator pointing out the disastrous consequences. What on earth is England thinking? Scotland looks on in horror.

Part of the comedy potential came from the styles of campaigning. having been through Indyref a couple of years ago we know exactly what Project Fear looks like. But now we have the spectacle of Project Fear taking on..... Project Fear. And no principle is too sacrosanct not to be dragged down into the sewers and regurgitated as hyperbolic spume. We've had Johnson telling us remaining will be like living under Hitler, farage telling us we'll all be raped in our beds, and Cameron forecasting the outbreak of World War Three if we leave. (In which case Dave, why did you call this stupid referendum? Oh yes, Tory party infighting....) And now, with just days to go, a pro Remain MP is murdered in the street by a far right Leave fanatic. Makes Jim Murphy's egg look a bit tame now, doesn't it?

OK, I know the EU is awful. I've seen how they shafted the Greeks. And yes, there is a lack of democracy in the governance. But when you compare it with Westminster it doesn't really look so bad. I'm not aware of anyone in the EU structure holding their post on account of being especially friendly with their imaginary friend, nor where their sole 'qualification' is managing to fall out of the 'right' vagina. The EU parliamentary electoral system doesn't allow a faction to win just 37% of the vote and end up with a majority. And as for the House of Lords....

Supporting the Westminster system and decrying the EU's lack of democracy is like Murdoch accusing Dacre of telling porkies.

There are several decent, reasonable arguments in favour of leaving the EU. But few of them get heard, the pro-Leave arguments being dominated by the right. And that matters, as I'll mention later.

Commentators are saying that there are two major issues dominating the voters minds. Number one is the economy. We know from experience that nobody can predict the economic future, but pretty much every independent thinker is saying that the impact is likely to be seriously detrimental. Even Leave have been forced to admit it. So how come so few people seem to be listening? Personally, as with Indyref, I don't think this should be about money. Nobody doubts that the UK would survive leaving the EU, and there might be benefits that outweigh the short or medium time financial problems that leaving would clearly cause. Anyway, if anyone is trashing the UK economy it's wee Georgie, with his austerity madness, and a Leave vistory won't change that insanity.

As for the second issue, immigration, this isn't a problem, it's a benefit. It's a non-issue created by a xenophobic right wing media, and the far right, like ukip. The latter are keen to blame everything on 'uncontrolled' immigration, and behind it all the dastardly EU. But every study shows that Britain is better off for immigration, and in many places, and certainly in Scotland, they are essential to the economy for demographic reasons. Most immigrants are younger, make little use of public services (and are rarely in receipt of benefits, despite the Daily Fail style myths being peddled), but contribute significantly with their taxes. They create jobs, they don't steal them.

Alongside this is the cry to 'take control of our borders'. Another myth. If you come in to Britain you have to show your passport. If you don't, as at the Irish border, it's because the British government has decided it should be that way. Or because they are failing to put the resources into the Border Agency. But it has nothing to do with the EU. There's this fantasy idea that anyone from the EU can walk in without any barriers. But the reality is that there are many regulations which can be applied to prevent entry, should that be necessary. We already have 'control' of borders. I would hate to see immigration being limited. Freedom is freedom.

If there is a bit of a problem it's with illegal immigration. So how is leaving the EU going to help that? By reducing cooperation between countries?

I feel some distaste for finding myself on the same side as Cameron. But this about much more than personalities. And anyway, it would upset me even more to be aligned with the power hungry Johnson, failed minister Gove or the corrupt and discredited Fox. Not to mention that far right band of ukip loons. So I'll vote Remain for three reasons.

The EU may be corrupt in places. But nothing like Westminster, as this terrifying quote from Murdoch makes clear. The EU, for all it's faults, retains some respect for human rights, workers rights, women's rights. A Johnson government would have none of it.

Advances in science have been of huge benefit to our society. The politicians running the Leave and remain campaigns both lie and exaggerate. Now Michael Gove is telling us we shouldn't pay any attention to experts, aka 'People who know what they're talking about'. But I'd have much more faith in the views of the people who spend their lives dispassionately reaching conclusions for the analysis of real data, than a man who's been a disaster as Education Secretary who thought that it would be a good idea to teach creationism to children. So when Stephen Hawking and the majority of his colleagues tell us that leaving the EU would be bad for science, and therefore our future, don't you think you should listen?

My third reason will see me accused of the hyperbole I condemn in others, but I can't see any way round it.

Quick question. When was the last time we had over seventy years pass without a war between any of the major powers of Europe?  Answers on a postcard....

We are living in a time when the notion of a shooting war between France and Germany, or Britain and Spain, or Austria and Italy, has become virtually unthinkable.  And that has never happened before.  Of course that is isn't entirely down to the EU, but it's certainly been, and continues to be, a major contributor to peace.

Leave supporters will tell you that it's NATO should take the credit.  But a military alliance can only keep the peace - it can't make it.  A lasting peace comes when states bind together, working on their common interests and ensuring that the idea of prosperity is one of mutual dependency and cooperation.

Although there are some on the left and in the centre of politics who have their reasons for supporting Leave, the greatest thrust for Out has come from the far right.  It's noticeable that ofttimes it's been hard to distinguish between the statements of Johnson, Gove and IDS, and the bigoted bile coming from Farage and co.  Ukip are your far right (and near enough non existent in Scotland).  If anyone disputes that I suggest you check out the company they choose to ally themselves to in the European Parliament; or the endorsements they received last year from Nick Griffin, 'Tommy Robinson', Britain First and Hatie Plopkins; or just one glance at Farage's nakedly racist poster a few days ago - Goebbels or Shepilov would have been proud of that one.

A win for Leave would be seen as a victory by the far right.  Not just in the UK , but across Europe.  And that's an ominous thought.  Similar far right nationalist groups are already exploiting discontent and lies in many countries across the continent.  In France the appalling Le Pen is seriously talked about as a possible president.  In Austria, Sweden, Denmark and Greece the fascists have grown their support.  The openly racist Pegida began in Germany and has since spread like a fungus.

And, that, for me, is the greatest danger of all.  An EU that collapses into rival right wing states run by rabble rousing nationalists.  You don't need to have all that much knowledge of history to see the alarm bells that rings.

But I did say there was comedy in all of this, so let's close on the funniest possible outcome.  If, on Friday morning, we wake to find the UK has voted narrowly to remain, but England voted narrowly to Leave, wouldn't that be hilarious?  You can imagine Nigel 'frog face' Farage turning a more vibrant shade than even his most ridiculous pair of trousers, and Paul 'Eddie Hitler' Nuttall's head exploding as the walnut that sits where his brain should be fails to comprehend what's happening.  How we'd laugh....