Only one day left until voting time, and the outcome remains wholly in doubt, despite the seeming consistency of the polls in recent weeks. The shape of UK voting intentions has shifted dramatically in the last five years and the pollsters are to some extent in unknown territory. There is near universal agreement, despite the bluster coming from Cameron and Milliband, that both the big parties will fall well short of an overall majority. This should be seen as a plus, forcing them towards a more consensual type of politics (which, admittedly, the current coalition has shown no signs of), closer to the European norm, and shifting further away from the dinosaur slug-out that we see in the USA.
This situation is an exciting one for anyone interested in the mechanics of politics, worrying for those who are desperate to see their own views reflected in the new government. I'm no exception and will be staying up for as long as I can stay awake on election night. My inner geek fascinated by the pattern being revealed, and it's implications. My desire for a more progressive form of leadership nervously doing the arithmetic. Guided by the Returning Officers' timetables and certain key results I'll be looking to.
So where might the polls have got it wrong? Could either Labour or Tories come up with anything today that gives one or the other a decisive advantage? Will the Lib Dems' collapse really be as great as predicted? Is the SNP surge going to look as big as it's being hyped up to be? And have ukip really got any foundation for claiming that they too have a surge on, albeit hidden because voters aren't revealing their intentions? (Which sounds entirely possible - who wouldn't be embarrassed to admit they're voting for the far right? A bit like all those people who never voted for Thatcher in the eighties, honestly they didn't.....) And can the best MP in the House of Commons hang on to that one Green foothold?
All I can do is put down my hopes and fears, knowing there's no crystal ball available, just based on what we know is possible. Hope one is that Labour do end up as the largest party, albeit well short of the three hundred seat mark. It won't stop the right wing media moaning about 'legitimacy', but it would reduce their scope for carping a fraction. For all his faults, Milliband is clearly the 'least worst' option of the two choices open to us.
Hope two is to see that forecasted Liberal Democrat carnage take place, a necessary punishment for the way in which they have betrayed so many of their voters. Clegg losing his own seat would be a bonus, but the one I really would like to see go is this man.
If the trends show it to be a possibility, it would worth staying up until 5ish just to see if Osborne's front man gets chopped by his electorate. A Lib Dem rump reduced to around twenty seats would open the field up for the more progressive parties to have influence on a forthcoming legislative programme.
Led by, hope number three, a strong SNP representation. We've seen polls suggest they could take all fifty nine Scottish seats. I don't think anyone believes that for a second, and there is going to be a lot of tactical voting taking place in the hope of preventing it. Currently with just six MPs, having never had more than eleven in the past, if the SNP break the thirty mark it would be an incredible achievement. If they could manage forty it would not be possible for Milliband to ignore them if he wants to be PM, in spite of his rash assertions last week. My hope? Forty five seats would have a nicely symbolic ring to it....
Backed up by Ms Lucas and MPs from Plaid Cymru and the SDLP there would be a good chance of working with what remains of the left in Labour ranks to guide a Labour administration away from the worst excesses of Austerity.
Fears? The return of the existing coalition would be a disaster, a continuation of the ideological attack that's been waging war on the most defenceless sections of society. But it could be worse. It's looking highly unlikely that Cameron/Clegg combo will be able to command a majority and Shiny Dave might look even further to the right. A government influenced by the homophobic DUP and xenophobic ukip would be a far greater evil than anything we've seen in the past five years. The only silver lining from such a scenario is the rate at which it would speed up the road to Scottish independence....
So, as with Inverness and Danny Alexander, I hope that South Thanet have the decency to return Farage to the status of obscure historical footnote he so clearly deserves. And that ukip's supposed surge is the wild fantasy that it appears to be.
My wishes won't all come true, but what's politics without hope? Many will disagree with me totally, but that's what democracy is all about. And I'd admit that the views expressed above are based on what seems realistic, not on what I'd genuinely like to happen. But that requires a cultural shift to move the agenda into the real world, not just the subjects that neoliberalism has deemed fit to be discussed. There's so much they'd rather we didn't mention.....
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