A world less safe

APOCALYPSE WHEN?

I'm not quite old enough to be able to recall the state of global tension that existed at the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis, but it's still remembered as one of those terrifying periods when the possibility of a global nuclear war seemed an all too real possibility. Since then the threat of a man-made apocalypse has been more or less likely, depending on international events. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Science and Security Board publishes their up to date of the likelihood in the form of the Doomsday Clock.  The early eighties felt like a very dangerous time, partly due to Reagan's hawkish posturing, and the demise of the Soviet Union greatly reduced that sense of imminence.

Since that time the world has felt safer, at least in nuclear conflict terms, than it did in the decades immediately following the Second World War. However the aforementioned Doomsday Clock does paint this greater sense of security as somewhat false, at least since the early years of the new century. But the threats posed by Iran, North Korea and Israel, which have been the major sources of concern, now look minor when faced with the way the world is shaping up in 2017.

Putin's Russia has shown signs of aggressive expansionism. China is concerned to protect it's interests as it expands it's influence globally. And into this picture comes a USA led by a thin-skinned, narcissistic neofascist. At a time when cool heads and stability are called for.... Having Trump in command of the world's largest concentration of nuclear destruction is like giving control of the dinosaur herd to Fred Flintstone. You've no idea what they're going to do, but it will be on an irrational impulse, probably angry, and almost certain to end badly. The Orange One is on course to make Dubya look like a great statesman by comparison.

When his election victory was announced there were hopes raised that he would be making sensible appointments to his cabinet, sage advisers who would be able to rein in his excesses. But when your Secretary of Defence comes with the moniker 'Mad Dog' the signs aren't promising.

Into this uncertain mixture we can through in uncertainty in Europe. At a time when stability appears critical we have the idiocy of the UK wanting to leave the EU, and the threat that fascists might win power in France and The Netherlands. A Europe that is at odds with itself is exactly what Putin would like to see, especially if an isolationist USA distances itself from the coming to the protection of the old Eastern Bloc countries.

Of course the 'Brexit' nonsense can still be stopped, and the shoddiness of the approach being taken may be leading it to fall apart. Polls indicate that a Le Pen victory is unlike in the French presidential race, and Wilders is still an outsider threat in Holland. But the polls said Hillary would be president....

2017 feels like return to the past in so many ways. But the most worrying is the likely impact it has on the Doomsday Clock. We are living in dangerous times.